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明树团队现身国外行业主流媒体,多次接受采访和报道

2021-05-01


4月29日,mni-news(国际市场新闻社)采访多位国内行业研究员,并发表文章:《china to restrict, not end, support for lgfvs》(“中国政府将对地方融资平台从严支持”全文附在文末)。

 

其中,北京明树数据科技有限公司(以下简称“明树数据”)高级研究员杨晓怿,接受采访并指出:“随着金融监管部门严格控制债券发行,并对融资租赁等非标融资渠道加强监管,城投平台的现金流出现明显压力。”“不过在公开市场发生债券违约的可能性不大,尤其是经发改委审批,为公共福利项目融资发行的企业债。”她补充道。同时,此报道也在彭博新闻社海外平台发布。

 

 

mni-market news是一家专注于国际资本市场的金融新闻机构。它是为全球外汇和固定收益市场提供实时新闻和分析的提供商。mni由经济学家罗伯特·琼斯(robert jones)于1983年创立,旨在向其第一家国际货币市场服务公司(mms(money market services)international)提供可靠的消息。建立三十多年以来,mni在美洲、亚洲和欧洲有12个办事处,新闻工作者团队的素质和经验使其在行业新闻机构中脱颖而出。

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这并不是明树数据团队第一次接受mni采访,今年3月22日,mni采访高级研究员杨晓怿并发表相关报道:《mni exclusive: china to increase refinanced bonds, debt swaps》(中国将增加对再融资债券和置换债券的支持力度)。

 

 

年初以来,明树数据团队多次现身国外行业主流媒体。明树数据ceo肖光睿在2月接受inframation采访,在报道中介绍了明树团队编写的《2020 中国ppp市场年报》。

 

 

inframation集团成立于2002年,旨在让基础设施投资领域工作者了解即将上市的交易和项目采购动态,是全球基础设施领域成功的新闻媒体平台之一。

凯发k8官网手机客户端官网:https://www.inframationgroup.com/

 

 

全文(中英)

 

china to restrict, not end, support for lgfvs

中国政府将对地方融资平台从严支持

 

china will continue to help local government financing vehicles through short-term liquidity crunches despite an official statement seemingly withdrawing implicit guarantees for their debt as any dent in the bonds' safety record could have major ramifications for the regional economy, policy advisors told mni.

据政策顾问向mni表示,政府将继续帮助地方融资平台度过短期流动性紧缺的难关。尽管近期官方文件意在逐步打破刚性兑付,但一旦城投公募债券违约,将对地方经济的发展带来巨大影响。

 

the state council's recent document urging lgfvs to "implement bankruptcy proceedings or liquidation in accordance with the law if they lose their ability to pay" has raised concerns that beijing's growing tolerance for defaults by state-owned enterprises is starting to extend to these funding platforms as it cracks down on leverage, including implicit debt.

国务院近期发布了《关于进一步深化预算管理制度改革的意见》,其中提到“对失去清偿能力的地方融资平台公司要依法实施破产重整或清算”。这份文件引发了市场关注,在中央多次提及降低政府杠杆率、化解隐形债务风险的背景下,市场人士担心中央政府对国有企业债务违约的容忍度有所提升,且将开始延伸至融资平台。

 

however, advisors believe lgfvs will continue to receive short-term support in indirect ways from regional governments. a major default in their bonds, which have thus far had occasional repayment problems and rank next only to those of the local authority in the domestic credit hierarchy, will shake faith in the financing system, they said.

然而,顾问们认为,短期内,融资平台仍将继续得到地方政府的间接支持,考虑到平台于地方信用金字塔的排位仅次于地方政府,其债务违约将动摇市场对区域金融系统的信心。截至目前,城投债不时出现技术性违约,但并未发生实质性违约。

 

local governments "may still help lgfvs through asset injections to improve their balance sheet, or more traditionally by offering subsidies and coordinating negotiations with creditors to extend debt repayments as through installments," said zhang yiqun, the director of a fiscal studies institute affiliated with jilin province's finance department.

吉林省财政科学研究所所长张依群表示,“地方政府或继续为融资平台提供帮助,可能通过向平台注入资产以改善其资产负债表,而更传统的做法是提供补贴;协调平台与债权人进行谈判,寻求以分期的方式延期偿还债务。”

 

defaults unlikely

违约可能性不大

 

besides funding many infrastructure projects, lgfvs have also taken on low or even non-profit ventures on behalf of the government and their debt has ballooned while fiscal revenues are shrinking.

除了为当地基建项目提供融资以外,平台还为地方政府承担了一些低收益甚至非盈利的公益性项目。近年来平台的负债规模逐步攀升,而地方财政收入却呈现萎缩之势。

 

the yunnan provincial government recently agreed to help yunnan investment group find a buyer for its stake in a subsidiary as the lgfv faced a liquidity crunch and struggled to repay debt.

近来,云南省城投平台云投集团面临短期流动性压力,偿债困难。为此云南省国资委将帮助云投集团寻找买家,收购其下属企业的股权。

 

more highly rated prefecture-level lgfvs are expected to face such problems. "there is obvious pressure on their cash flow as the financial regulator has strict controls on debt issuance as well as on other non-standard means such as financial leasing." said yang xiaoyi, researcher at bri data, an investment advisory firm to local governments. still, defaults in the public debt market are unlikely, especially with issues approved by the national development and reform commission to fund public welfare projects, said yang.

一些高评级的地级市大平台可能也将面临类似的流动性问题。明树数据研究员杨晓怿表示,“随着金融监管部门严格控制债券发行,并对融资租赁等非标融资渠道加强监管,城投平台的现金流出现明显压力。不过在公开市场发生债券违约的可能性不大,尤其是经发改委审批,为公共福利项目融资发行的企业债。”

 

the total interest-bearing debt of lgfvs was about cny49 trillion by end-2020, accounting for 48% of gdp, according to the national institution for finance & development. excluding debt raised for their own commercial activities such as real estate development, local government implicit debt generated by lgfvs accounted for about 30% of gdp, mni recently reported. some cny2.7 trillion of lgfv debt matures this year, according to yang.

据国家金融与发展实验室提供的数据显示,2020年末,融资平台的全部有息债务规模约为49万亿元,占gdp的48%。mni在近期报道中指出,剔除其为房地产开发等商业行为所举借的债务,融资平台所实际形成的地方政府隐性债务约占gdp的30%左右。杨晓怿表示,今年将有约2.7万亿元的城投债到期。

 

responsibility

偿债责任

 

repayment issues are clouded by the difficulty in pinpointing responsibility, advisors said. while local governments take on debt related to projects without any revenue, they tend to exclude that generated by the lgfv's operations, said a researcher with a government-backed think tank who asked for anonymity.

顾问们表示,偿还责任难以厘清也是化解债务过程中的一大困扰。一位要求匿名的政府智库研究人员表示,地方已将一些完全没有收益的公益性项目所产生的负债转化为政府债务,同时与融资平台在其商业运营中产生的负债做切割。

 

zhang said lgfvs are set to consolidate through mergers. currently, each of the 2,800 or so counties nationwide has three lgfvs on average. in some developed provinces, infrastructure requirements are minimal and cannot support that many lgfvs, yang said, suggesting that contrary to general perception, associated risks may be higher in developed provinces such as jiangsu. but the government may continue to support lgfvs in some less-developed areas, said yang.

张依群表示,各地融资平台整合升级是大势所趋。目前,全国2800多个县,平均每个县就有3家融资平台。杨晓怿称,在一些经济发达省份,基建需求已相对饱和,难以支持数量繁多的融资平台继续存续。和普遍看法相悖,杨晓怿认为像江苏这样的经济发达省份或更易看到城投风险的暴露,而在一些欠发达地区,地方政府将继续支持融资平台以满足当地基建投资的需求。

 

another source at a government-backed think tank suggested lgfvs identify and concentrate on high-quality assets and let shell platforms go bankrupt to minimise bond market shocks.

另一位政府智库的消息人士建议,融资平台可进行资产剥离,集中优质资产,让空壳平台破产,把对债券市场的冲击降至最低。